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Russia Ramps Up Fight on 2 Fronts 07/02 06:11
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) -- An emboldened Russia has ramped up military offensives
on two fronts in Ukraine, scattering Kyiv's precious reserve troops and
threatening to expand the fighting to a new Ukrainian region as each side seeks
an advantage before the fighting season wanes in the autumn.
Moscow aims to maximize its territorial gains before seriously considering a
full ceasefire, analysts and military commanders said. Ukraine wants to slow
the Russian advance for as long as possible and extract heavy losses.
Kremlin forces are steadily gaining ground in the strategic eastern
logistics hub of Pokrovsk, the capture of which would hand them a major
battlefield victory and bring them closer to acquiring the entire Donetsk
region. The fighting there has also brought combat to the border of the
neighboring Dnipropetrovsk region for the first time.
In an effort to prevent Moscow from bolstering those positions in the east,
Ukrainian forces are trying to pin down some of Russia's best and most
battle-hardened troops hundreds of kilometers away, in the northeast Sumy
region.
"The best-case scenario for Ukraine," said Russian-British military
historian Sergey Radchenko, "is that they're able to stall or stop the Russian
advance" in the Ukrainian industrial heartland known as Donbas, which includes
the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Then Ukraine could "use that as the basis for
a ceasefire agreement."
"There's a better chance for Russia to come to some kind of terms with
Ukraine" in the fall when the Russians "see the extent of their offensive,"
Radchenko added.
While the battles rage, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is waiting
to learn whether the Trump administration will support tougher sanctions
against Russia and back a European idea to establish a "reassurance force" to
deter Moscow.
A setback came with the U.S. decision Tuesday to halt some weapons shipments
to Ukraine out of concern over America's own depleted stockpiles.
Ukraine faces relentless assaults in Sumy
In the Sumy region, Ukrainian forces face a constant barrage of aerial glide
bombs, drones and relentless assaults by small groups of Russian infantrymen.
They endure the attacks to prevent Russian forces from being moved to other
battlegrounds in the eastern Donetsk region.
Ukrainian forces intensified their own attacks in Sumy in April and even
conducted a small offensive into Russia's neighboring Kursk region to prevent
up to 60,000 battle-hardened Russian forces from being moved to reinforce
positions in the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, Ukraine's top army
commander, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, said last week.
If those troops had been moved, they could have increased the tempo of
Russian attacks across the front line and stretched Ukrainian forces thin.
The strategy did not come without criticism. Commanders who were ordered to
execute it complained that it resulted in unnecessary loss of life.
Russian forces have penetrated up to 7 kilometers (4 miles) into the
northern Sumy region from different directions along the border.
Ukrainian forces are determined to keep them there to avoid freeing up
Russian forces to fight in the east. So far they have succeeded, locking up to
10,000 Russian troops in the Glushkovsky district of the Kursk region alone,
where Ukraine maintains a small presence after being mostly forced out by
Russian and North Korean troops earlier in the year.
Russia seeks maximum gains in Donetsk
The war's largest battle is being waged in Donetsk as Russia inches toward
its stated goal of capturing all of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Unable to tackle the strategically significant logistical hub of Pokrovsk
directly, Russian forces are attempting to encircle the city, a maneuver that
requires encroaching on the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region. Bringing the
war to a sixth Ukrainian region would be detrimental for Ukrainian morale and
give Russia more leverage in negotiations if its forces manage to carve out a
foothold there.
Sabotage groups have crossed the border, only to be eliminated by Ukrainian
forces.
But in time, commanders fear that Russia will advance as Ukraine continues
to grapple with severe shortages.
Lack of soldiers and supplies across the 1,200-kilometer (745-mile) front
line mean that Ukrainian forces must concentrate on holding their positions and
conserving resources rather than advancing, said Oleksii Makhrinskyi, deputy
commander of the Da Vinci Wolves battalion.
Commanders describe battles so intense under drone-saturated skies that
rotating forces in and out of position has become a deadly operation. Ukrainian
forces remain in combat positions for several weeks at a time or more, relying
on supplies carried in by drones.
The Russians' goal "is just to enter Dnipropetrovsk region, to have a good
position politically if the presidents negotiate peace," said Andrii Nazerenko,
a commander of the 72nd Brigade, a drone unit in eastern Ukraine, referring to
potential talks between Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
"They're really close to getting what they want," he said.
All eyes on Trump's next move
Zelenskyy hopes U.S. President Donald Trump will move away from his
administration's past ambivalence toward Ukraine and signal his intention to
continue American support, a move that could also alter Moscow's calculations.
The two presidents met last week on the sidelines of a NATO summit and
discussed a possible weapons package, including Patriot missile systems that
Ukraine intends to purchase with European support.
The U.S. Defense Department announcement now calls that into question
although it did not specify which weapons were being held back when it
disclosed the Pentagon review of American weapons stockpiles Tuesday. The halt
of any weapons from the U.S. would be a blow to Ukraine as it struggles to
confront Russia's daily aerial barrages.
Zelenskyy also hopes Trump will punish Russia by imposing harsher sanctions
on its energy and banking sectors, which bankroll the Kremlin's war effort.
Europe and the U.S. have imposed successive sanctions on Russia since the
full-scale invasion in 2022, but Zelenskyy says those measures have not been
enough to pierce Moscow's war machine. He has proposed a $30 per barrel price
cap on Russian oil.
EU sanctions envoy David O'Sullivan said Europe needs to maintain the
sanctions pressure while also "holding out the prospect that if Russia behaves
correctly, we could have some kind of ceasefire and some kind of sense of
negotiation, but for the moment Russia doesn't seem to want that."
Kyiv's closest European allies are also awaiting a sign from Trump that he
will support a plan to deploy foreign troops in Ukraine to guard against future
Russian aggression after a ceasefire agreement. That is likely the best
security guarantee Ukraine can hope for in lieu of NATO membership.
Meanwhile on the battlefield, Russian forces appear increasingly confident.
Nazerenko noticed a shift in the morale of advancing Russian infantrymen in
recent months. Instead of running away while being assailed by Ukrainian
drones, they keep pushing forward.
Nazerenko could not help but ask a Russian prisoner: "You know you will die.
Why go?"
Because, the Russian soldier replied: "We will win."
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