MORGAN, Minn. (DTN) -- Drier-than-normal conditions across Minnesota were relieved in the last two days of July when a storm provided a steady show with anywhere from 3 to 7 inches of rain across the state, leading nearly everyone growing corn and soybeans to declare it a "million-dollar rain."

Farmers and analysts who spoke to DTN last week at Minnesota Farmfest said they expect the state's crops to produce yields comparable to last year, which saw record or near-record yields in most counties across the state.

"I was on a radio network last week kind of praying for an August rain in July, and we got it," said Jordan Goblish, who farms in Redwood County in the south-central part of the state. "When you talk about a million-dollar rain, that was it. Now, if we can catch one more in August, that would be even better. Otherwise, the crops are the best I've seen them."

CORN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2026: 200.6 bushels per acre (bpa)

-- DTN 2025: 199.1 bpa

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 190.7 bpa

SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2026: 52.6 bpa

-- DTN 2025: 51.3 bpa

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 49.8 bpa

Last year's USDA Crop Production Summary report pegged Minnesota's corn yield at a record 201 bpa and soybean yield at 52.5 bpa. DTN's yield estimates for 2026 fall right along those lines.

While the DTN Digital Yield Tour is in its ninth season, this is the third year that it employs DTN's proprietary crop yield models. The tour estimates reported here are based on yield models as of Aug. 1. The models update every two weeks and do not incorporate weather forecasts.

For more about how those models work and what makes them unique, please see: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Results for all states covered by the tour can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Updated yield model results will be shared in early September on DTN's online products. You can view a Reporter's Notebook that previewed the Digital Yield Tour at https://www.dtnpf.com/…. On Aug. 14, you can find the post-tour Reporter's Notebook video at https://www.dtnpf.com/…. Also, later in August you can hear a Field Posts Podcast about the tour results at https://www.dtnpf.com/….

WEATHER COMMENTARY

Minnesota has been on the edge of the weather situation the entire season, said DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"Usually, that leads to a lot of good rainfall events," he said. "There sure have been some, but not for large areas of the state's growing areas."

The state didn't start with much drought despite the lack of snow this spring, Baranick noted. That was except for the southwest corner, which, like northwestern Iowa, missed out on a lot of the events. Variable temperatures during planting led to some interesting issues.

"Though the ground was dry enough to plant, some folks took advantage while others waited to ensure frosts would not become an issue," he said. "They were planting into early May again this year, especially in the northwestern corner of the state. That has probably led to a wide range of planting dates across the state."

Early season wetness helped to keep soil moisture high in a lot of areas. The Minnesota River Valley endured some heavy rain events throughout the summer but also had to deal with an uptick in hail. Southeastern areas saw an extreme flood event in early July. But the overall trend was for lower coverage and amounts of rain as the summer wore on.

"High heat in mid and late July were also issues, and drought spread through more of the state toward the end of the month," Baranick said. "At the very tail end of July, we did see a widespread heavy rainfall event across much of the state. The Minnesota River Valley was the big winner, but much of the state cashed in on some needed rain as we headed into the critical month of August."

MARKET COMMENTARY

Corn production in Minnesota in 2025 was a record, said DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery, and the 2026 Digital Yield Tour results suggest the potential for that record to be challenged this upcoming fall.

"In fact, crop ratings according to USDA are dead even with last year to begin August, with 75% of Minnesota's corn crop said to be in good or excellent condition," he said. "It makes sense that the Yield Tour would find steady and record-level production potential in Minnesota yet again."

Like corn, the 2025 soybean yield was also a record for Minnesota, the No. 3 producer of soybeans in the U.S. Once again, the DTN Digital Yield Tour sees that record being challenged in 2026 with an initial forecast 1.3 bpa larger than in early August last year, Montgomery said.

"Despite periods of weather uncertainty in July, conditions improved drastically over the past few weeks and look to be favorable to mid-August as well." He added, "75% of Minnesota's crop was reported to be in good to excellent condition to start August, 2 points higher than in early August 2025."

OBSERVATIONS

-- Bob Worth, Lincoln County, Minnesota:

Worth farms in the southwest corner of the state. He said his crops look comparable to last year. The corn has time to fill and raise its test weights, which will help yield tremendously, he said.

"If we have 58- to 59-pound corn, our yields are going to be considerably higher than 52- to 53-pound corn," he said. "Overall, we're going to have as good a corn crop as last year."

Last year, Lincoln County farmers averaged a record 212.6 bpa for corn, according to RMA. That was nearly 12 bushels higher than their previous record in 2020. Worth said he had fields last year that hit the 220-bpa range. "That's way above normal for us."

DTN projects Lincoln County farmers will average 197.9 bpa on their corn, which reflects that area of the state that remains drier.

Soybeans are still a wildcard, Worth said, because August is such a critical month. Another rain is likely needed to fill out the crop. Still, the foliage is waist-high with heavy flowering, which looks good. Like others, Worth was concerned about white mold potentially affecting his soybean crop, so he applied a fungicide.

DTN projects soybean yields in the county at 51.7 bpa, which would be 2 bushels below last year's crop, according to RMA.

While his farm also got a good rain last week, Worth said crops are significantly drier in counties farther south from him. "If you go about 18 miles south, they never got the rain," he said. "They are going to be chopping silage in the next week to 10 days. The pasture is gone, and beans are aborting their pods."

-- Jim Kukowski, Roseau County, Minnesota:

Kukowski farms on the northern edge of the state. His farm is dry, but he noted farms all around his place got much-needed rain last week as well.

"It varies so much because that last rain band that cut through was about 2 miles wide," he said.

Kukowski grows spring wheat and soybeans. Despite drier conditions, he said his neighbors' corn crops look good, and his soybeans also have strong potential. He has not heard of any farmers reporting significant soybean pests.

"Right now, it's unreal how well the beans look," he said. "Last year was one of the best years we have ever had."

In 2025, Roseau County had a corn yield of 187 bpa and an average soybean yield of 43.7 bpa. Kukowski said he had neighbors last year who had yields as high as 55 bpa.

Roseau County, however, doesn't perform as well this year, based on DTN's forecast. The county's corn yield is pegged at 145.0 bpa. The county's soybean yield also is projected to fall to an average of 37.9 bpa.

-- David Nicolai, University of Minnesota Extension crops educator:

Farmers across the state typically battle excessive moisture during planting season. That wasn't the case this year, which made it a lot easier for farmers to get the crops in, Nicolai said.

"Usually, you look at fields and they're up and down -- one area got too wet, that sort of thing. This year, we got in early and didn't have excessive rainfall, and the crop has been exceedingly uniform across a lot of the state," Nicolai said. "So, the potential, we feel, is for good yields, based on the fact growers were in the fields early, we didn't have excessive rainfalls, and we didn't have a loss of nitrates so much."

The summer, though, turned hot in July with a couple of weeks of excessive heat. That caused the corn to start to wrap, especially in western counties where the soil doesn't have the same water-holding capacity. Then, the rains hit in the last week of July that boosted the outlook almost everywhere.

When it comes to soybeans, timely August rains will continue to be needed to effectively maximize the yield potential, Nicolai said.

"If we have some good, consistent rains, we have got a lot of potential," he noted. "But if we shut off the rains, the soybean yield is going to go downhill."

Nicolai said a lot of farmers sprayed fungicides to protect both crops, but the first reports of southern rust showed up in a few counties in late July. That was about two weeks earlier than last year. Still, Nicolai said the disease tends to show up late, and he doesn't think it will be a significant issue.

"I don't anticipate a big problem, but I know a lot of people want to spray for that," he added.

-- Ryan Mackenthun, McLeod County, Minnesota:

Mackenthun farms just west of the Minneapolis metro area. The new president of the Minnesota Soybean Growers Association said his farm hasn't been in a drought designation all year.

"My crops are looking really good," he said. "It's going to be a record yield, at least how it looks on the corn. The soybeans will definitely be above average."

Throughout June, Mackenthun was on the southern edge of rainstorms that came every few days. It reached a point where his soybeans were turning yellow, Mackenthun said.

"I was seeing a lot of yellowing in the beans from being drowned out in the low spots, so the beans were actually getting a little waterlogged," he said.

Still, that moisture in the soil helped when the temperatures climbed in July, Mackenthun said. "I never even saw a hint of stress in our crop through that stretch," he said.

During the last week of July, the area around McLeod County got 6 inches of rain. Mackenthun said it soaked in quickly.

"We've got great coloring in our soybeans. Every acre is growing, and there aren't any drowned-out areas or anything."

McLeod County averaged 214.9 bpa last year for corn, a record, and 57.9 bpa for soybeans, which tied the county record, according to RMA data.

DTN's model forecasts McLeod County's corn yield at 211.7 bpa and soybeans at 57.8 bpa for 2026.

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

Follow him on social platform X @ChrisClaytonDTN

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