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Poll: US Support for Israel Slips 07/07 06:12
NEW YORK (AP) -- After decades of reliable bipartisan backing for Israel, a
new AP-NORC poll reveals a dramatic erosion of support for the longtime U.S.
ally, with rising opposition from Democrats and signs of division among
Republicans.
The survey by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research
arrives at a moment when a once-consensus foreign policy issue is increasingly
polarizing Americans along partisan and generational lines, driven by criticism
for Israel's conduct nearly three years after the outbreak of its latest war
with Hamas in Gaza.
About one-third of U.S. adults -- including roughly half of Democrats --
believe that Israel has committed genocide against Palestinians during the war
in Gaza, an accusation that's been leveled by some human rights organizations
and vehemently denied by Israel and the U.S. government. About 2 in 10
Americans say Israel has not and the rest, about half, don't know enough to say.
A similar share, 30%, of Jewish adults say Israel has committed genocide,
although about half, 49%, say it has not.
Harold Kalmus, a 69-year-old Democrat from Arden, Delaware who describes
himself as Jewish by birth, said he remembers being proud of Israel when he was
younger. Not anymore.
"I realize that there is a threat from Hamas. And I realize they're in a
very difficult situation, but what they have done is just an unspeakable
horror," he said of Israel's military action against the Palestinians. "They're
trying to wipe out a civilization as far as I'm concerned."
The findings show sharply eroded views of Israel in the U.S., nearly three
years after Hamas' attack on Oct. 7, 2023, which left 1,200 people dead in
Israel, mainly civilians, while 251 hostages were taken back to Gaza. More than
73,000 Palestinians have died in Gaza according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health
Ministry, which doesn't distinguish between civilian and militant deaths,
including more than 1,000 killed since the beginning of the latest ceasefire.
American sympathies had been shifting toward the Palestinians and away from the
Israelis since around 2020, according to other polling, but has nose-dived
since the latest war in Gaza began.
Many Americans, about 4 in 10, don't know enough to say whether Israel's
immediate military response to Hamas' attack or its ongoing military operations
were justified. Among those who did have an opinion in each case, most say the
initial retaliation was justified -- but a majority think its current actions
are not.
About three-quarters of Jewish adults said Israel's initial response was
justified, but only about 4 in 10 believe that about its ongoing operations.
Only about one-third of U.S. adults view Israel as an "extremely" or "very"
important issue to them personally. But it's been a searing topic in American
politics as the relationship between the two countries remains tense, just four
months before high-stakes midterm elections determine the balance of power in
Congress for President Donald Trump's final two years in office. Vice President
JD Vance recently criticized Israeli leaders who have expressed frustration
with Trump, while vocal critics of Israel recently defeated
establishment-backed Democrats in New York and Colorado primaries.
Democrats' support for Israel drops
The AP-NORC poll reveals a decisive shift within the Democratic Party.
About 58% of Democrats now say the U.S. is "too supportive" of the Israelis,
up from 45% in an AP-NORC poll from January 2024 when former President Joe
Biden was in office. That includes 51% of Jewish Democrats in the new poll.
Roughly 6 in 10 Democrats, 62%, say the U.S. is "not supportive enough" of
the Palestinians, up from 49% in 2024. Younger Democrats -- those 45 and
younger -- are still more likely than older ones to say that the United States
is "not supportive enough" of the Palestinians, but older Democrats are
catching up to their younger counterparts. About 57% of older Democrats now say
the U.S. should do more for the Palestinians, up from 39% two years ago.
Joy Jennik, a 73-year-old Democrat from Brookfield, Wisconsin, said she
didn't have strong opinions about the U.S. relationship with Israel until after
Hamas' Oct. 7 attack.
Now, she believes Israel is guilty of genocide.
"The Gaza Strip, there's not a lot left of it. Those poor people are barely
living," said Jennik, a retired home economics teacher.
GOP stays behind Israel, but less so among young Republicans
Just a sliver of Republicans, 13%, describe Israel's actions as genocide,
although there is an apparent age gap. About 2 in 10 Republicans under 45 say
Israel has committed genocide, while about 1 in 10 Republicans ages 45 and
older say the same.
Overall, 60% of Republicans describe the U.S. support for Israel as "about
right." Only about 2 in 10 Republicans say that the United States is "too
supportive" of the Israelis, although Republicans under 45 are more likely to
say this.
The share of Republicans overall who say the U.S. is "too supportive" of
Israel has not changed meaningfully since 2024, but the share who say the U.S.
is "not supportive enough" has shrunk from 39% to 15%.
Mike Cardona, a 70-year-old Republican from suburban Phoenix, said he's
pleased with the level of support that the U.S. is giving Israel and rejects
the notion that Israel has committed genocide.
"I wish they'd gone in harder and better," Cardona, a retired industrial
supply salesperson said of Israel's military action in Gaza. "Unfortunately,
some innocents will be hurt, but Hamas and Hezbollah never took that into
consideration when they were killing children and women in Israel."
Netanyahu is broadly unpopular, while views of Mamdani are split
In interviews, several respondents emphasized that their criticism of Israel
was focused on its leaders, especially Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who
is perceived as closely aligned with Trump after repeated clashes with
Democratic presidents.
Overall, only 20% of U.S. adults have a favorable view of the Israeli prime
minister, while about twice as many, 38%, have an unfavorable view. About 41%
don't know enough to have an opinion.
Netanyahu is particularly unpopular among Jewish adults: about 6 in 10 view
him unfavorably, while about one-third see him positively.
Younger adults, regardless of party, are more likely than older adults to
say they don't have an opinion about Netanyahu. But while older Republicans see
Netanyahu more positively than negatively, younger Republicans' views tilt
unfavorably.
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani has gained prominence as an outspoken
critic of Israel, and 27% of U.S. adults have a favorable opinion of the
34-year-old democratic socialist. Another 28% of U.S. adults have an
unfavorable opinion, while 44% don't know enough to say.
Jewish adults, who overwhelmingly identify as Democrats, have a more
positive view of Mamdani than of Netanyahu, with 44% viewing the New York City
mayor positively, 39% viewing him negatively, and 17% saying they don't know
enough to say.
About half of Democrats overall have a favorable impression of Mamdani and
only about 1 in 10 have an unfavorable view of him, while the rest, about 39%,
don't have an opinion.
Meanwhile, the U.S.-Israel relationship is not top of mind for many
Americans as they think about the upcoming midterm elections.
For people like Michael Ripka, a 34-year-old stage hand from Casper, Wyoming
who typically votes Republican, the economy is by far the most important thing
on his mind.
"Everything is mad expensive," he said. The conflicts in the Middle East, he
added, is "100% a very big distraction."
***
The AP-NORC poll of 3,040 adults was conducted June 11-17 using a sample
drawn from NORC's probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be
representative of the U.S. population. The poll included interviews with 1,022
Jewish adults. The margin of sampling error for adults overall is plus or minus
2.8 percentage points and the margin of sampling error for Jewish adults is
plus or minus 5.0 percentage points.
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